TikTok Shop Bets Big on U.S: 200% Growth for 2025
TikTok Shop's $80B Goal—How It Plans to Thrive Amid Ban Fears?
TikTok Shop is forging ahead with its ambitious expansion plans, despite ongoing regulatory challenges in the U.S., its most lucrative market. According to LatePost, the platform generated more than $40 billion in sales last year, primarily driven by Southeast Asia, while rival Temu, operated by Pinduoduo, recorded $52 billion in revenue.
For 2025, TikTok Shop is targeting a 200% growth rate, with the U.S. as its primary focus. However, some insider cautions that the ambitious goal hinges on the app's ability to remain operational in the U.S. If forced out, TikTok's e-commerce team will shift its focus to Southeast Asia, which remains its largest market outside the U.S.
To mitigate risks, TikTok Shop is expanding into Italy, Germany, France, Brazil, and Japan this year. Yet, none of these markets can match the U.S. in spending power—TikTok Shop's first-year U.S. sales nearly matched Indonesia's three-year total, highlighting the difficulty of replacing the American market.
Plan B
On Jan. 19, 2025, TikTok was pulled from U.S. Apple and Google app stores under the Sale-or-Ban law. In response, TikTok rolled out workarounds: Android users can sidestep the Play Store with a direct download—key since 65% of its users are on Android. iPhone users, however, must navigate non-U.S. Apple App Stores to reinstall the app. On Feb 13, Apple and Google reinstated TikTok in their U.S. app stores.
TikTok Shop has weighed the prospect of a full U.S. exit, with Southeast Asia as its fallback. In 2024, TikTok Shop raked in about $30 billion across the region, driving more than half of its global sales. Thailand and Vietnam even outperformed expectations.
But despite high e-commerce adoption, Southeast Asia lags far behind the U.S. in spending power and growth potential. In just a year, TikTok Shop's U.S. sales hit $20 million a day—nearly matching what Indonesia took three years to build. The gap is even starker in order value: $30 per purchase in the U.S. versus just $5 in Indonesia.
Europe is TikTok Shop's next bet, with launches in Germany, France, and Italy set for 2025. While these markets boast strong consumer spending, e-commerce penetration and livestream shopping adoption remain low.
TikTok Shop's four-year run in the UK has yielded modest results—its annual sales are just 1/15 of Southeast Asia's total. A key hurdle will be securing a steady pipeline of French, German, and Italian-speaking livestream hosts. "Expectations for these markets aren't high. For now, the UK remains the ceiling," said a source familiar with the expansion.
Beyond Europe, TikTok Shop's prospects dim. It plans to launch in Brazil but faces steep hurdles—high logistics costs, weak consumer spending, and hefty import duties that stifle small cross-border shipments. "A product that sells for $40 in the U.S. might only fetch $10 in Brazil," a TikTok insider noted.
Australia's vast geography and sluggish logistics make e-commerce penetration low, while the Middle East struggles with underdeveloped infrastructure and an unprofessional courier network. TikTok once tested its fully-managed model there in 2023, but progress has been limited.
Can TikTok Shop Fix Livestreaming in U.S.?
While regulations pose hurdles in U.S. , consumer behavior presents a different kind of obstacle —particularly when it comes to livestream shopping."TikTok Shop wants Americans to embrace livestream shopping. So far, they aren't biting.
In its early U.S. expansion, TikTok Shop relied on Chinese merchants to host live sales. But language barriers made streams feel inauthentic, pushing the platform to recruit U.S. influencers and sellers in 2024. The result? Some improvement, but engagement remains weak.
Short videos still drive most of TikTok Shop's U.S. revenue, with livestreaming contributing less than 20%—a far cry from Douyin's 70% livestream-driven sales.
TikTok Shop is tweaking its algorithm to make livestreaming more attractive. Hosts no longer need marathon sessions to gain visibility, and improved recommendations help streams reach the right audience faster.
Meanwhile, Chinese MCN agencies are setting up U.S. livestreaming hubs, giving influencers direct access to products and a plug-and-play approach to live selling.
Yet, TikTok Shop faces an uphill battle. Americans aren't sold on livestream shopping—at least, not yet.